Sensor Readings
Enter current sensor values. The model predicts failure probability using a business-cost-optimal threshold (FN=$50K, FP=$2K).
How Threshold Tuning Works
Asymmetric Costs
Missing a real failure costs $50,000 in unplanned downtime. A false alarm costs $2,000 in unnecessary maintenance. These are very different errors.
Default 0.5 is Wrong
The default threshold maximizes accuracy — which is misleading when failures are only 3.4% of records. 97% accuracy by always predicting "no failure" is useless.
Cost-Optimal Threshold
The optimal threshold minimizes: FN × $50K + FP × $2K. In the current model, that moves the operating threshold to 0.775, reducing false alarms while keeping recall high.